Certo, sarebbe stata meglio una vittoria. Ma una vittoria piena, ovvero con la maggioranza in entrambe le camere. L’eventuale ribaltamento della situazione, da molti auspicato, da parte della Cassazione, avrebbe prodotto un mostro a due teste: maggioranza di centrodestra alla Camera e maggioranza (seppur risicatissima) del centrosinistra al Senato. Ma per fortuna (!?!) le cose non sono andate così, e l’incarico di governo andrà a Romano Prodi. Nell’ipotesi paventata prima invece, ci sarebbe stata una situazione ibrida, in cui entrambi gli schieramenti avrebbero potuto “reclamare” l’incarico governativo, nonostante le diverse proporzioni della maggioranza della Camera rispetto a quella del Senato. La qual cosa, soprattutto dopo l’apertura di Berlusconi ad un governo di larghe intese, avrebbe probabilmente prodotto un papokkio: governo istituzionale da affidare a una personalità esterna ai due schieramenti, ampia maggioranza parlamentare con tutti i grandi partiti dentro, agenda ridotta all’osso con pochi punti condivisi (ma per la finanziaria?), modifica della legge elettorale e nuovo ricorso alle urne. Beh, messa così non sarebbe poi tanto male, visto che una non vittoria si potrebbe comunque ribaltare nel giro di un anno, sempre che tutto ciò sia poi vero. Ma un ritorno al voto, tra un anno o giù di lì, non è comunque un’ipotesi peregrina, direi che è anzi likely. All this, however, will depend on how the House of Freedoms will want it really. Now we have left in the hands of the Prodi lit match, knowing that it will not be able to go ahead with his program of government, buffeted from side to side a thousand different pressures that will mature in his coalition. Great move designed to evoke the large, provided that it is done (no doubt) in the knowledge that Prodi and his angry, refused. In fact, now it's up to them to demonstrate its capability to govern alone ... ... It would certainly be preferable, for Prodino, find a person that he does think, demonstrated the impossibility to move forward with these assumptions, and persuades him to make a speech like "the country is split in two: the face of this situation, with a strong sense of responsibility, despite having won the elections and has a majority can rule, I think it's best to find an agreement between the two poles so as to form a government institution that changes this infamous electoral law and to take us to new elections soon ... "Unfortunately for him, however, can not possibly do this speech, which perhaps some long-standing political and thinking of the center will also come to mind, his definitive death penalty (which however will not be long) from the political scene. Anyway resistance also coming from the extreme wings of the line, eventually cut off from governissimo (they are called out on their own anyway), and in any case obliged to respond to its constituency of hard-core, which does include such an option. Prodi is forced, given the situation, to reach out to the nth fool of his political career ...
But are we really sure that this government will be short lived? I assume so, unless the CDL does not want to burn with the match, which in turn is the left hand. This strange election has in fact meant that the matches lighted, instead of one, are two. I'm convinced that no voter would be able Degree to understand the reason for a long stay in the center-left government under these conditions, having the center many cards to play. The match remained in the hands of the leader of the CDL is precisely this, namely the commitment made to their voters, but never rigalvanizzati from this campaign and are ready to get back on the field (but who knows for how long ... we need to hurry up deploy troops once more before the moderates fell asleep again). It would be detrimental to stand still and wait for the river that passes the corpse of this government. The CDL needs to do, responsibly, the good of Italy, or accelerate the departure of Mr Prodi and his ministers with the means at his disposal. That this time, there are many, given the representation in the Senate very thick. This government (but never will be formed?) Will in fact only two likely to last long (who knows what then ...). The first is that merely making a lot less ordinary, casting campicchiare, minicontentini giving all the members of the coalition, telling everyone that this is the only way forward, at least to age for the newly elected terms for the well-deserved retirement from parliamentary ... I think frankly this is unlikely to happen. The second chance is that Prodi's face recruitment drive in the array of center-right, but in the hope of not losing some of its ultras disgusted dagli eventuali nuovi arrivi. Anche questa, sinceramente, mi sembra un’ipotesi peregrina, non tanto per le dichiarazioni di compattezza della CdL ascoltate in questi giorni (tra il dire il fare c’è di mezzo il mare, specialmente quando si parla di prebende da incassare), quanto perché mi sembra poco oculato fare il passaggio di campo proprio quando lo schieramento opposto è in evidente difficoltà, precludendosi poi la possibilità di una eventuale rielezione, cosa alla quale i parlamentari tengono molto, magari anche a breve (quale dei due schieramenti lo candiderebbe? Certamente non quello tradito, ma probabilmente nemmeno l’altro). E allora, per evitare di scottarsi, il centrodestra faccia un’opposizione tough, uncompromising, and soon the Prodi government will be forced to go home. The game is mostly in the hands of senators, of course, but also of the party leader, who will ensure that the Senate will not be repeated painful scenes seen in the last legislature, when the Berlusconi government was outvoted on several occasions because of the absence of members of the center. The lesson they have suffered, I hope that they were also able to learn it. The strategy is simple: just be present for the Senate, with one leg inside the classroom and out, and evaluate from time to time if necessary to get to vote (when one realizes that in the majority) or to request quorum (and then to suspend the session, thus blocking the parliamentary work). Not a measure could pass, or perhaps a ... Easy, right? Of course, one must be present for the Senate, but that's the meaning of the match in the hands of the CDL, which is the fulfillment of commitments to the electorate (at least the presence in the classroom ...)
With this background, the season the opposition promises to be rather short. It is also obvious that, if you were really vote again in a few months, the center would be very much in anguish, is the inability to revive a coalition frantumatasi into a thousand pieces, is the difficulty in spiegare ai suoi elettori il perché di una “stagione di governo” praticamente nata morta. E allora, apriamo il cuore alla speranza…
